Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Massive Lead for Walker in Recall Election


The lapdog media is spinning the Wisconsin recall election polling in favor of their union comrades. Even the usually reliable Rasmussen is way off on this one--they show only a 5 pt. lead by Walker. However, the graph below shows the results from the "prediction market" known as Intrade, where people are free to bet on election results. And those who put their money-where-their-mouth-is, are betting heavily on Governor Scott Walker. Note that at time of publication, on June 5, the price for a Walker win stood at 93. A closing price of 90 on the graph below equates to a 90% probability of event occurring (in this case, that Scott Walker wins the recall election). A $9 bet against Walker would return $100 if Walker loses.  With returns like that, you can be certain that money hungry Unions would be betting large sums against Walker if they believed he had a reasonable shot at victory. In short, almost no-one is willing to bet on Tom Barrett and the unions. You can learn more about "Prediction Markets" here

 


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